‘Moana’ prepares to rule the roost over Thanksgiving weekend

ScreenerBlog

Disney continues its pattern of Thanksgiving weekend releases with their latest, Moana, which is poised to do what Tangled, Frozen and The Good Dinosaur couldn’t and lock down the number one spot. Not much stands in its way—Thanksgiving weekend is typically a good one for family-friendly fare, the kids being out of school and all, and none of Moana’s new wide release competition fits that description. Disney is expecting a $75 million five-day haul, though that seems modest given the film’s overwhelmingly positive critical reception, not to mention the presence of the ever-popular Dwayne Johnson behind the microphone. A gross somewhere in the neighborhood of $85 million is more likely, with $90 million not outside the realm of possibility.

Last week’s champ Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them will probably slip to spot number two, holding its own against new offerings Allied, Bad Santa 2 and Rules Don’t Apply. Of those three, Allied should be the highest earner, grossing somewhere in the mid-twenties over the five-day weekend. 

With the family-friendly Trolls and Doctor Strange still in play, it will be a struggle for the R-rated Bad Santa 2 and Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply, a sprawling romance centered around eccentric industrialist Howard Hughes (kids love him!), to crack the top five. Bad Santa 2 has a mere 25% on Rotten Tomatoes, and it’s not like comedy sequels have been doing particularly well this year; its five-day cume will probably settle in the low- to mid-teens. Reviews for Rules Don’t Apply are more mediocre than actively terrible, with the film scoring a 58% approval rating, this is one that's mostly slipped under the radar up to this point. Debuting on approximately 2,300 screens, it should bring in around $5 million over the five-day break.

New limited releases include The Weinstein Company's Lion, which makes its bow in New York and Los Angeles in advance of a later expansion. Also out are Miss Sloane, Always Shine and Evolution.